This chapter talks about how to evaluate Offense Rating and Defense Rating throughout different years. There’re lots of things we need to consider, such as rule, talent, and possibly even changes in the length of shorts affected. Dean Oliver thinks that it’s hard to find the greatest team on offense and defense, but we can find consistencies among those teams, patterns that may suggest how to construct other teams or at least how to predict what teams might be great. For simplicity, we evaluate the teams of history against the averages of their times.

New Terms:

Pace: Possessions per Game

Scoring Possessions: FGM + [ 1 — (1-FT%)² ] * FTA * 0.4

Plays: FGA + FTA * 0.4 + TOV

Floor Percentage: Scoring possessions/ total possessions

Field Percentage: FGM/ total possessions — 0.4*FTA

Play Percentage: Scoring possessions/ Plays

Floor Percentage:Percentage of a team’s possessions on which the team scores at least 1 point

Field Percentage: Percentage of a team’s non-foul shot possessions on which the team scores a field goal

Play Percentage: Percentage of a team’s “plays” on which the team scores at least 1 point

Difference between Plays and Possessions

Let’s say a team miss a shot and get the offensive rebound, it’s still one possession but two plays.

Four aspects of a game

  1. Shooting percentage from the field.
  2. Getting offensive rebounds.
  3. Committing turnovers.
  4. Going to the foul line a lot and making the shots.

If you aren’t shooting from the field, you better be doing a few of the other three things. If you don’t have the size to get defensive rebounds, you better force turnovers. If you can’t take care of the ball very well, you better get shots up before you turn it over, then go after the boards.

Interesting topics:

  1. Do Pace and Rule affect Efficiency?

  2. For great teams, were they Star-Driven or System Driven?

  3. For great teams, were there any key positions that needed a great player in order for the team to have a great offense or defense?

  4. Is there any correlation between great offense and height?